June 28th, 2022
Investing in Variables of Experience
“Only on rare occasions do the worlds of art and science merge. This happened during the Renaissance and again in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when the French Impressionists studied the physics of light. We may now be approaching such a period again. Contrary to popular belief among many experimentally inclined psychologists and sociologists, the productions of artists and writers represent rich, unmined beds of hard data on how one perceives. To be able to distill and identify essential variables of experience is the essence of the artist’s craft.”
- “The Hidden Dimension”, Edward T. Hall
This was written in the 1960’s but this is applicable today.
Art provides a more advanced gauge of consumer sentiment, and a more advanced scientific economy.
There are many growing undercurrents of Quality and Design hidden from the headlines and the podcasts.
They key is differentiating between the essential, the discretionary and the extraneous. This will likely always require human discernment and analysis with an understanding of art, science, economics, and wisdom.
June 26th, 2022
Edify - to Build
“Living is Differentiation, it is Orientation in the Community towards Time, and means Recognizing the House as an Entity of Life and Constructed Space.” – Christopher Alexander
Morphology has parallels in Biology, Grammar & Architecture.
Organisms, Words and Architecture all lead to Life.
Companies that are built on Health, Meaning and Structure will likely be the best long-term investments in a modern Socioeconomy because of their foundational, brick-by-brick, lasting, morphological structures.
Companies that edify society and community.
June 23rd, 2022
We Are a Services Surplus Nation
1975 was the last U.S. “Trade” Surplus. The Trade Surplus came as a major surprise at the time, even to the expert economists, because of the high oil prices and the expected side-effects. This actually caused a decline in Oil Imports and a major increase in Coal Exports. There was also an increase in Exports for Automobiles and Military Aircraft.
In Q1, 2022 The U.S. Exported $101 Billion in Petroleum and Oil Products, which was 21.29% of Total Exports.
Artwork, Antiques and (Stamps?) were $2.7 Billion or 0.58% of Total Exports.
If you ‘Control F” the spreadsheet database for terms like ‘Finance’, ‘Investment’, ‘Bank’, ‘Insurance’, ‘Architecture’, ‘Design’, ‘Engineer” you get the piano jingle that says “We couldn’t find what you were looking for. Click Options for more ways to search”.
I don’t want to Click Options but we need to Retry-Rewrite-Recode what the Options are. It makes some sense that these Services are not listed as Exports but regardless of how they are coded and labelled, these Services should be a National Point of Emphah-sis instead of hoping to bring back RCA Black & White TV Factories…If we’re trying to not increase coal and oil and military aircraft again.
“the state should try to arrest growth by simply not planning for it.” – Conservationist – Raymond Dasmann
(I had to re-read this quote a few times for it to sink in as far as the mix of sarcasm and authenticity he managed to blend together)
Not Planning with Expansive Planning = No Bueno.
We need Market Growth with Durable Designs, Structures and Services.
Agency is a synonym for Production
Agencies that have Effective Operatives create Agentives (active roles that produce effects, denoting the doer of an action in grammar)
The stereotype of the Investment Banker reaping financial rewards without doing much of anything or producing much, is simply not true and not accurate. Production takes many forms and dimensions and Investment Banking, City Planning, Architecture, Structural Engineering, Design & Art are all similar to Manufacturing. If our Trade Balance / Economy is going to improve, we have to factor these numbers in as Economic Trade Production and focus on their Growth.
Protection is also a type of Production, Home Preservation, Asset Preservation, Community Preservation, Environmental Preservation, Health Preservation. Producing Protection is Productive and Growth Oriented in terms of Math/Finance and in terms of Aesthetics, Design, Durability, Longevity, etc.
We need to download some Updates for what it means to Produce and Manufacture Productive Economic Growth.
We are a Services Surplus Nation and our Agencies are our Comparative Advantage. We need to inhabit the Deficit Space.
June 11th, 2022
Terra-cotta is the material equivalent of comfort food. Food cooked in terra-cotta holds the moisture and flavor, plants grown in terra-cotta thrive, and floors covered in terra-cotta tile can survive for centuries. – Cheryl MacLachlan
Terra-cotta means baked earth or cooked earth. The colors are usually a mix of the University of Texas and the University of Tennessee. No matter how much I enjoyed seeing a Ronnie Lott hit or a Lawrence Taylor sack as a kid, I can’t deny that I loved watching games with captivating uniform colors like the Oakland Raiders, old Buccaneers uniforms, the Vikings. Color even plays a role in football. Terra-cotta colors are naturally relaxing because you can see the work that went into making the Designs. Even the terra-cotta army is stunning to look at, every face is different. They spent 30 years making those clay soldiers in China and they’ve lasted over 2000 years. Terra-cotta can be used to make flowers or soldiers but the terra-cotta itself is a powerful material.
If the clay that’s used is too Porous it will be too Flimsy, if the clay Absorbs Too Much water, it will Crack during cold Winters. The Durability comes from the Quality of the clay being used.
The Italian village of Castel Viscardo is a destination for class trips for school children to come into the factory and watch the terra-cotta bricks get made from scratch by hand. Their large kiln/oven can fit 50,000 bricks that have to be logistically stacked in perfect form and order by humans instead of a cyborg crane with pre-programmed algorithms. Moving shipping containers in and out of ports is likely one area where automation is much better than humans but when it comes to Investing in Designs for your Unique Home, the more human involvement the better.
Brick by Brick is a powerful and enjoyable Investment Process.
“Bringing Italy Home”, MacLachlan
“Arriving Today”, Mims
May 25th, 2022
Design is Stronger than Inertia
Socioeconomics is Designed.
An Integrated Circuit has to, of course be Designed. A Multi-Use Structure has to be Designed. When there are a multitude of variables and priorities intertwined into one System, leaving it to Intertia will not Identify or Amplify the proper Continuatives. Designers are Essential.
May 20th, 2022
Retirement Form & Function Calculation
When most homeowners purchase Paint, they will let their Design professional know the Square Footage of their home. They often have this number memorized. Well, of course, it’s rare that anyone is planning to Paint their Flooring, and so, that Square Footage number is almost inconsequential to the Project involved. You need the 3-Dimensional figures of the Form of your Customized home with each Wall, and to be more specific, the Ceiling dimensions, the Doorways, Windows, etc. Each room may have a different Theme and different Lighting with different Colors and Sheens.
If someone is getting a Fence installed, they need the Shape, the Framework Theme, they need to know how many Corners / Linkages / Connectors / Binders / Continuatives / Conjunctions / Nodes / Diodes, not just the 1-dimentional measurement of how many feet of Fencing they need.
The Balance Value of a Retirement Account today is similar to the Square Footage. What is the Form & Function of that Retirement Account? We can calculate the Time Value of your Money and we can calculate Amortization schedules, but what about the Style Box? What is the money Designed to Shape, what are the dimensions of the Ceiling for it to be enough to Retire on and use for Income? What will there be Room for in the Retirement Plan, and how will those Rooms be Painted?
Citizens of Monaco are not allowed to enter the gaming rooms of Le Casino de Monte-Carlo. The Casino is for Visitors only. James Bond’s Past Performance may not represent Realistic Future Results in Reality. Monte Carlo Simulations are Simulations of Aggregated Data from External Others. Reality Matters.
[PV] Present Value and [FV] Future Value have the word Value built into the Calculator. [IRR] Internal Rate of Return is Interior Designed.
The House (almost) always wins based on Mathematical, Scientific Calculations and Projections with Factored in Probabilities. It’s your House. Enjoy the Design Process. Enjoy what you’re actually Investing in and who you’re actually Investing with. It’s okay to watch the Paint dry. Paint is beautiful.
May 13th, 2022
Tensile Strength & Yield Strength of Steel
Tensile Strength is the maximum stress that Steel can withstand while being stretched.
Yield Strength is the upper limit of the load that the Steel can withstand without permanently bending.
Units of force can be measured by using a cross-sectional area of the 3-dimensional section of Steel. The area of the 2-dimensional shape that is formed when the 3-dimensional object is sliced perpendicularly like the side of a piece of cake.
The 3-dimensional Volume of the Steel or the Length x Width x Height is needed to get a full understanding of the Steel’s Strength.
The Intermodal Supply Chain wants to have maximum payloads for the Delivery, for the Backhaul, and for the Driver. 3-dimensional payouts are ideal.
The IRI or International Roughness Index measures the Quality and Capacity levels of Supply Chain Trade Routes by determining their Roughness Thresholds. Studies consistently show that Maintenance Costs are more cost effective than Rebuilding and Repaving new Routes.
If they are Solidly in place, Macroprudential and Microprudential dimensions create Resilience, Capital, Liquidity and Sound Infrastructure because they lead to Imports of Foreign Direct Investment Flows.
During times of Economic Stress, it’s important to consider the Tensile Strength and Yield Strength of your Investments, their Roughness Thresholds and their Macroprudential and Microprudential dimensions.
Companies that have cross-sectional Steel throughlines throughout foundational socioeconomic sectors.
March 3rd, 2022
Axial Solutions of Finance, Form & Function
A new need is first sensed as an abstract vision of a present need being better satisfied, or as a hazy dream of ways in which life might be made easier, fuller and more enjoyable.
One of the most important aptitudes and prerequisites of an architect is their ability to perceive needs, to solve the tasks that contemporary society sets and to find the Form for them.
Fashion is a precursor of Style and also an Economic Leading Indicator of Style which leads to the synthesis of Form & Function, or Style & Use-Value.
Raisonné & Hammer Price Corporation has created a new, multidimensional Style Box or Style Cube that is built around the framework of Expansive Planning.
We have put forward a strictly objective skeleton for the new Style, sufficiently complete, for the Financial Advisor, and for the Artist to Enliven with their own Individuality and their own Axial Solutions.
Everyone has a different Axis, but the Financial Economics are the Concrete Foundations that Expansive Plans are built from.
Even before taking up a pencil, the artist must conceive and carefully consider a good, Expansive idea.
The above words are mainly a synthesis of views from Economist Ota Šik, and Architects Otto Wagner and Heinrich Hübsch, that apply today quite fittingly, despite being made in some cases hundreds of years ago.
February 23rd, 2022
Realism is a Strategy.
In his book Modern Architecture (from 1896), Otto Wagner believed that Artists have an obligation to create public trends. He was a strong proponent of Realism with chromatic intensity, and a focus on Purpose, Comfort and Health.
Realism in the Art World reached its trending peak during the invention of Photography.
Photorealism has Selective Focus and Distorted Scale, Authentic Photography is not distorted.
Certain types of Abstraction and Surrealism are actually a part of Realism in our multi-dimensional Real world, others are not. Art challenges us to determine how we want to process Reality. Abstraction and Surrealism are not an escape like Photorealism. Abstraction and Surrealism are Enhanced Reality or Enhanced Realism.
Realism is also at the core of International Relations, Financial Planning and Expansive Planning. Realism is not negative. Realism is Preparedness and Situational Awareness.
Effective Economics shapes the trend of needs with intellectual growth that involves Purpose, Comfort and Health.
February 3rd, 2022
The only way back from the Abstract to the Concrete is to be able to establish what was excluded in the Abstract with exact precision. It’s possible, but one can not reassemble the Abstract into the totality of the Concrete from the Abstract alone, it is more of a one-way street that can not be put in reverse. The Abstract can only be reassembled from the elements of the Concrete. Factors that may be ignored in the Abstract may be essential for Productive Socioeconomic Progress. Art, Fashion & Design are healthy blends of Productive, Tangible, Abstract & Concrete. Many of the best Manufacturing and Design companies are moving in the right direction, which is a Positive Economic indicator.
January 30th, 2022
Socio-Economic factors include Social Differentiations that follow independent courses based on factors such as Ideology, Art, Fashion, Colors, Design Themes, Hobbies, Style Preferences, etc. Independent, customized, personalized paths of Socio-Economic factors are essential for a Healthy Society and a Healthy Economy. Foundational Socio-Economic planning can include human rights, animal rights, environmental rights and still allow for complicated, contradictory views of expression and ideology.
Companies that focus on Cross-Population Generalizability and Sample Generalizability, which is also ironically known as External Validity, and of course the opposite of Internal Validity or Causal Validity will not solve today’s challenges. Companies that have Internal Validity / Causal Validity business models that can customize and personalize with human interactions will have competitive advantages that are worth investing in because they can solve today’s challenges. Solving today’s challenges, needs and wants is the basis of all Socio-Economics. It is concurrently filled with contradictions and unifying.
January 21st, 2022
Discipline of Perception needs Design, Art & Fashion for The Ideal Reflection of the Existing Reality. Objective Truth is Healthy. Investing in and partnering with these types of companies is Healthy.
January 16th, 2022
Bracketing quantifiable factors and being briefed by briefers can produce equations that have nothing to do with reality.
Communicating with the right people, and self-researching can piece together the critical intangibles, linking the abstract with the concrete to create mosaics, fortresses, and multi-dimensional reality.
Institutional Expansive Planning is about Planning for Reality.
January 14th, 2022
Product > Process > Lever
There are companies that are very good at selling Products,
There are companies that have a dominant Process, and
There are organizations that understand what Levers to pull to keep society moving forward with stability and beauty. Even an individual peasant, subsistence farmer that has 10 square feet of land has the same choices. They can grow Products. They can create a repeatable Process or, They can plan for how to make the soil last forever. They can choose not to grow the much more profitable, harmful crops that will pay their family 100x more. They can choose not to mistreat any livestock with small cages. They can choose not to block the water flow. They can choose to regenerate what may get cleared. A subsistence, peasant farmer that is making these tough choices the right way is a very powerful, Global Lever with Market Power, and more sophisticated (sophie means ‘wisdom’) than any Product or Process.
Lever organizations and Lever people will thrive.
January 9th, 2022
In 1940, Switzerland based Hoffman-La Roche moved it’s operational headquarters from Basel to Nutley, NJ in the U.S. as an expansive contingency plan. A mirror image of the Basel location was built up in Nutley. The complex certainly stood out in the small town that I grew up in. The architecture, scale and security measures were unlike any other building complex in the area.
Today, Jacksonville, FL is a global, multi-modal logistics hub centered around deep-water ports connecting 28+ nations. Jacksonville is growing twice as fast as the rest of the U.S. St. Johns County has been the top-rated school district in Florida for 9 years in a row with it’s water-based, sunshine lifestyle. Last weekend, we went for a run on the beach and the beach clubs were packed in January, and right next to vast open, empty beaches filled with baby seagulls, sand pipers and pelicans squinting and relaxing.
Jacksonville, FL is a great place for Institutional Expansive Planning and many of the best performing companies this past year also made expansive contingency moves to other strategic locations. Something to look at going forward as a long term investor is what companies are thinking ahead and expanding to the right locations.